Summary
Pollster Nate Silver believes that polls might be overestimating support for President Donald Trump after a discrepancy in the New Jersey gubernatorial race. Although polls predicted a close race, the Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill won by a larger margin than expected. This outcome has raised questions about the accuracy of polling ahead of future elections.
Key Facts
- Nate Silver commented on the potential overestimation of support for President Trump in polls.
- In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill won by 13 points, rather than the predicted 3.
- The polling miss was twice as large as the overestimation for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
- Democrats had significant wins in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races.
- Polls have often underestimated Trump's support in previous presidential elections.
- Democrats were credited with strong performances in various elections, boosting their 2026 midterm hopes.
- Polling errors might be due to factors like “shy” Trump voters or lower-propensity voters supporting Trump.
- Every seat in the U.S. House and one-third of Senate seats will be contested in the 2026 midterms.
