Summary
The OECD reports that global economic growth is doing better than expected, partly due to investment in AI. However, the organization warns that new trade tensions could harm this growth, and high expectations for AI might cause stock market changes if they aren't met. The OECD also highlights concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs and fiscal policy.
Key Facts
- The OECD expects global growth to slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with a rebound to 3.1% in 2027.
- President Trump’s tariff increases have had mild effects so far, but their costs are expected to rise.
- The U.S. economy is projected to grow 2% in 2025 and slow to 1.7% in 2026.
- AI investment and expected cuts in U.S. interest rates help counter the negative effects of tariffs and other factors.
- U.S. fiscal policy faces challenges with large budget deficits and rising debt.
- China’s growth is forecast to remain stable in 2025 but slow in 2026 due to new U.S. tariffs.
- Growth forecasts for the eurozone and Japan have been revised upward for 2025 but are expected to slow in 2026.
- Global trade growth is projected to decrease from 4.2% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, affected by tariffs.
