Summary
An economist has highlighted a worrying sign for the U.S. economy based on a recent rise in unemployment rates. The "Sahm Rule," used by the Federal Reserve, indicates potential early stages of a recession when unemployment rises by 0.5% compared to the previous year's lowest level. November job data revealed a rise in unemployment to 4.6%, raising concerns among experts about a slowdown in the labor market.
Key Facts
- The unemployment rate in the U.S. increased to 4.6% by November 2025.
- The Sahm Rule suggests that a rise in unemployment can be an early sign of recession.
- Between September and November, the three-month average unemployment rate rose to 4.5%.
- The economy added 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 jobs in October.
- October's job loss was partly due to government employees leaving after a deferred resignation offer.
- Job growth has slowed significantly, with nearly no overall employment growth since April.
- Rising unemployment is a concern, but not yet at typical levels seen at the start of recessions.
- Claudia Sahm noted complications in using her rule due to missing data from October.
