Summary
Betting odds suggest there is a high chance of President Donald Trump being impeached during his second term. However, current congressional dynamics make it difficult for any impeachment efforts to succeed. The possibility of impeachment may change depending on the outcome of the November elections, which could shift control of Congress.
Key Facts
- Betting odds for President Trump’s impeachment reached a record high of 59 percent in Kalshi's market.
- Impeachment efforts in Congress need a majority in the House of Representatives to proceed.
- Currently, Congress is controlled by Republicans, making it hard for impeachment efforts to gain traction.
- Democrats hope to win more seats in the upcoming November elections which could change impeachment chances.
- The Senate would need a two-thirds majority to convict and remove a president from office.
- The likelihood of impeachment looked different on Polymarket, where the odds were 14 percent for 2026.
- In December 2025, an impeachment resolution failed when the House did not pass it.
- Some Republicans, like Representative Don Bacon, suggested they might support impeachment if extreme actions were taken.
