Summary
The odds of a U.S. government shutdown increased after a federal agent shot Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. This has led to calls for the Senate to oppose a DHS funding bill, which, if not passed, could result in a shutdown on January 31. Prediction markets have shown a significant rise in bets anticipating a shutdown.
Key Facts
- A federal agent shot and killed Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, leading to increased odds of a government shutdown.
- Two prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, saw a spike in bets about the probability of a shutdown.
- Before the shooting, the odds of a shutdown were low, but they jumped to around 75% after the incident.
- A DHS funding bill needs Senate approval to prevent a shutdown, which would otherwise occur on January 31.
- The bill includes funding for ICE and FEMA, and had previously passed the House.
- Some Democratic lawmakers oppose the funding bill and are calling for the Senate to reject it.
- Republicans hold a 53-seat majority in the Senate, meaning some Democratic support is needed for the bill to pass.
- A shutdown could affect many federal programs, but ICE and CBP may largely remain unaffected.
