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Democrats’ Chances of Flipping Montana Senate Seat—Poll

Democrats’ Chances of Flipping Montana Senate Seat—Poll

Summary

A new poll shows that Republican Senator Steve Daines currently leads potential challengers for the Montana Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Democrats, looking to flip the seat, face a tough challenge in a historically Republican state. If Seth Bodnar runs as an independent, it could change the dynamics of the race.

Key Facts

  • Senator Steve Daines is leading in polls for the Montana Senate race, seeking reelection in 2026.
  • The poll shows Daines has a 19-point lead over Democratic legislator Reilly Neill and a 14-point lead over Seth Bodnar if Bodnar runs as a Democrat.
  • If Bodnar runs as an independent, Daines leads by 9 points in a two-way race.
  • In a three-way race, Daines leads with 52%, Neill has 25%, and Bodnar 16%.
  • The poll surveyed 607 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.98 percentage points.
  • President Trump has endorsed Steve Daines for reelection.
  • Reilly Neill supports universal healthcare and public schools.
  • Seth Bodnar, a former Army officer, might run as an independent candidate.

Source Information