Summary
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's chances of winning the Republican U.S. Senate primary have increased recently. Prediction markets give him a significant lead over rivals John Cornyn and Wesley Hunt. Traditional polls show a closer race, but still have Paxton leading.
Key Facts
- Ken Paxton is leading in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary prediction markets with an 82% probability.
- Prediction markets function like stock markets where prices change based on perceived momentum in a race.
- Competitors in the race include Senator John Cornyn, with a 14% probability, and Representative Wesley Hunt, with a 1.7% probability.
- Traditional polling by the University of Houston shows Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31%, and Hunt at 17%, with a 4.18% margin of error.
- Republicans have a slight lead of 1-4 points in the general election matchups, but these are within margins of error.
- The Texas Republican Senate primary is seen as an important battle for the direction of the GOP.
